Russia's seaborne crude exports rose to 3.65 million barrels a day in the four weeks through November 1, according to tanker data compiled by Bloomberg. The rebound comes after President Donald Trump's diesel agreement with Vladimir Putin, even as Ukraine continues striking the refineries that turn Russian oil into fuel.
The four-week average increased by 60,000 barrels a day from the revised figure for the period through October 25. That measure smooths out changes in individual tanker departures. It describes crude shipped overseas, rather than Russia's total oil production or the amount of diesel delivered to American buyers.
Crude shipments rise while refineries remain exposed
The November 3 report described exports edging higher even as a lull in Ukrainian attacks helped refineries increase processing. That puts the rebound alongside an improvement in domestic refining, rather than making it simply a story of crude being pushed abroad because plants were unable to use it.
Those two flows face different constraints. Crude can leave Russia on tankers without first passing through a refinery. Diesel has to be produced by those plants before it can be shipped. A recovery in crude exports therefore doesn't establish that Moscow can deliver every diesel cargo promised under the Trump-Putin agreement.
The threat to processing was visible again on November 3. Yaroslavl Governor Mikhail Evraev said drones had attacked a refinery in the city overnight, damaging infrastructure and injuring two employees with shrapnel wounds. Both were hospitalized, according to his account.
He wrote in a Telegram statement, translated from Russian:
"There is damage to the refinery's infrastructure. Special services are working to extinguish the fire."
Evraev also reported broken windows in apartment buildings and private homes, along with damage to residents' cars from drone debris. Meduza identified the plant as Slavneft-YANOS, one of Russia's largest refineries. His statement did not quantify lost processing capacity or say how long repairs would take.
Trump's deal depends on fuel that Russia can actually export
As Apex previously reported, Trump announced the diesel arrangement on October 9 after speaking with Putin. He said Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tons immediately, another 500,000 in November and 1 million immediately afterward to American and global markets.
A further 3 million tons would follow, depending on the condition of Russian refineries. That qualification matters after another plant was hit. The announcement covered several stages and buyers beyond the United States; it wasn't a commitment that the full volume would reach American customers at once.
Trump tied the agreement to the fuel bills of businesses that rely on diesel:
"Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority."
The administration also issued a Treasury license allowing specified Russian diesel transactions, including imports into the United States, through April 7, 2027. As that earlier coverage explained, the permission concerns diesel and does not remove every restriction on Russian energy trade.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak subsequently said Russia was prepared to supply partners from the volume it planned to export, as detailed in Apex's October 25 report linked above. That leaves domestic availability and refinery operations central to the delivery question.
Ukraine has objected to the relief because energy sales bring Moscow revenue during the war. President Volodymyr Zelensky has offered a reciprocal halt to attacks on energy facilities if Russia stops destroying Ukraine's energy system, according to that account of the negotiations.
The Treasury permission did not make sales conditional on an energy ceasefire. It also excluded debits to U.S.-held accounts belonging to Russia's central bank, National Wealth Fund or finance ministry. Those limits shape which transactions can proceed even when a cargo is available for export.